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Title of article :
The Effects of Variability of the Mathematical Equations and Project Categorizations on Forecasting S-Curves at Construction Industry
Author/Authors :
Banki, M. T. amirkabir university of technology - Department of Civil Engineering, تهران, ايران , Esmaeili, B. amirkabir university of technology - Department of Civil Engineering, تهران, ايران
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Abstract :
Cash flow forecasting is an indispensable tool for construction companies, and is essential for the survivalof any contractor at all stages of the work. The time available for a detailed pre-tender cash flow forecast is oftenlimited. Therefore, contractors require simpler and quicker techniques which would enable them to forecast cash flowwith reasonable accuracy. Forecasting S-curves in construction in developing countries like Iran in compare withdeveloped countries has many difficulties. It is because of uncertainty and unknown situation in nature of constructionindustry of these countries. Based on knowledge of authors there is a little attempt for cash flow forecasting inconstruction industry of Iran. As a result authors produced An S-curve equation for construction project from historicaldata which has reasonable accuracy. A sample of 20 completed projects was collected and classified in to the threedifferent groups. In order to model S-curves for each group, a simple and reliable method of S curve fitting has beenused. S-curves were fitted into each group by using different techniques. Errors incurred when fitting these curves weremeasured and compared with those associates in fitting individual projects. At the end, accuracy of each model hasbeen calculated and an equation has been proposed to forecast S-curves.
Keywords :
S , curves , Cash flow , Financial forecasting , Project management , Construction industry , Developingcountries
Journal title :
International JOurnal of Civil Engineering(Transaction A: Civil Engineering)
Link To Document :