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Title of article :
A review of different perspectives on uncertainty and risk and an alternative modeling paradigm
Author/Authors :
Samson، نويسنده , , Sundeep and Reneke، نويسنده , , James A. and Wiecek، نويسنده , , Margaret M.، نويسنده ,
Issue Information :
روزنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2009
Pages :
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Abstract :
The literature in economics, finance, operations research, engineering and in general mathematics is first reviewed on the subject of defining uncertainty and risk. The review goes back to 1901. Different perspectives on uncertainty and risk are examined and a new paradigm to model uncertainty and risk is proposed using relevant ideas from this study. This new paradigm is used to represent, aggregate and propagate uncertainty and interpret the resulting variability in a challenge problem developed by Oberkampf et al. [2004, Challenge problems: uncertainty in system response given uncertain parameters. Reliab Eng Syst Safety 2004; 85(1): 11–9]. The challenge problem is further extended into a decision problem that is treated within a multicriteria decision making framework to illustrate how the new paradigm yields optimal decisions under uncertainty. The accompanying risk is defined as the probability of an unsatisfactory system response quantified by a random function of the uncertainty.
Keywords :
uncertainty , Design problems , Risk , Multicriteria decision making
Journal title :
Reliability Engineering and System Safety
Link To Document :