Record number :
10756
Title of article :
Modeling Uncertainty in an Object-Oriented Reservoir Operations Model
Author/Authors :
Carron، John C. نويسنده , , Zagona، Edith A. نويسنده , , Fulp، Terrance J. نويسنده ,
Issue Information :
روزنامه با شماره پیاپی سال 2006
Pages :
-103
From page :
104
To page :
0
Abstract :
In recent years, reservoir management considerations have expanded to include environmental and recreational objectives, many of which are often difficult to quantify. With a larger set of operational objectives comes the need to identify tradeoffs and uncertainties among the various objectives. Uncertainty modeling may contribute to better reservoir management by identifying and quantifying the sources of significant uncertainty in predicting reservoir and river conditions that affect environmental habitats and recreational conditions. We implement a first-order, second-moment algorithm in RIVERWARE, an object-oriented river and reservoir modeling environment. The method is developed and applied to a case study from the lower Colorado River, where a preexisting deterministic model is used for reservoir operations and planning. The case study involves evaluation of uncertainties associated with prescribed reservoir pool elevations for purposes of recovering endangered fish species. Comparison of historical forecasts with observed data can provide managers with insight into operational policies that result in greater system uncertainty. Identifying these sources of uncertainty can guide managers in the development of future operational guidelines.
Keywords :
Application-production research , Genetic-fuzzy system , prediction , grinding , Surface finish , Power requirement
Journal title :
JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION & DRAINAGE (ASCE)
Serial Year :
2006
Link To Document :
بازگشت